Cisco estimates that by 2021, global IP traffic will exceed 3 3B
Cisco has published a report «a good index of development of network technologies» (Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast Cisco VNI), which deals with global digital transformation in the period from 2016 to 2021. Cisco experts predict a further increase in the number of Internet users (from 3.3 to 4.6 billion), an increase in the number of personal devices and machine-to-machine connections and also to increase the average speed of broadband access and the growth of video traffic. The report authors expect the global volume of IP traffic in the specified period will increase threefold, reaching a 3.3 ZB in 2021.
While the application of IoT in 2021 will account for over half of all devices and connections. Note that the share of IoT in the total traffic amounted to only 5%. The main factors of growth include the emergence of smart homes and cars, the implementation of IoT technologies in healthcare and other fields. By the way, health care with such «apps», as communication with emergency services personnel, monitors the health and medical dispensers, according to analysts, will be the fastest growing sector, showing an average annual increase of 30%. In the second place, the pace of growth will be applications for connected cars and connected cities (here programiroda average annual growth rate of 29%).
The report provides some predictions concerning Russia. In particular, it is expected that IP traffic in the period from 2016 to 2021 will be doubled with an average annual growth rate of 17%. Mobile data traffic will grow during the period under review five times, that is 37% per year. As a result, his share, amounting in 2016 13% of all IP traffic by 2021 will increase to 28%. IP video traffic over the same period will grow three times, playing in four. Specify that, even with this rapid growth of the gaming traffic in 2021 will have only 3% of consumer Internet traffic. If you believe Cisco, in 2021 Russia will 841,3 million devices with a network connection. More than half of them — 57% — will be communication modules M2M.
The average speed of fixed broadband connections will increase in 1,6 times, from 30.1 to 47.1 Mbps, and the average mobile connection speed in 3 times, from 5 to 15 Mbps.